I am pleased to provide you with the Ways and Means Committee New York State Revenue Report for State Fiscal Years 1997-98 and 1998-99. This report is part of our commitment to presenting clear and accurate information to the public. It provides an overview of the national and State economies, as well as an analysis of the Committee Staff revenue forecast for State Fiscal Years 1997-98 and 1998-99.

The Committee Staff projects that General Fund and Lottery receipts will total $36,892 million in State Fiscal Year 1997-98, an increase of $2,317 million, or 6.7 percent, over State Fiscal Year 1996-97. The Committee Staff estimate is $125 million higher than the Executive’s estimate for State Fiscal Year 1997-98. General Fund tax revenues, however, are only estimated to increase by 3.2 percent over State Fiscal Year 1996-97. The growth in tax revenues, however, has been affected by tax reductions enacted by the State over the past few years. State Fiscal Year 1997-98 receipts are reduced by over $2.0 billion in tax reductions that took effect this year.

The Committee Staff projects that General Fund and Lottery receipts will total $39,247 million in State Fiscal Year 1998-99, which represents an increase of $2,355 million, or 6.4 percent, over State Fiscal Year 1997-98. The Committee Staff estimate is $819 million higher than the Executive's estimate for State Fiscal Year 1998-99. This difference is largely attributable to differences in economic projections and how this translates into receipts. General Fund tax revenues are expected to increase by 6.3 percent in State Fiscal Year 1998-99. Again, absent the tax reductions, growth in tax revenue would total 7.2 percent.

The Committee Staff projections are reviewed by an independent panel of professional economists drawn from major financial and manufacturing corporations, prestigious universities, and private forecasters from across the State. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and I would like to express our appreciation to all of the members of our Board of Economic Advisors. Their dedication and expert judgement have been invaluable in helping the Ways and Means Committee staff refine and improve this forecast. They have served to make the work of the staff the best in the State. Of course, they are not responsible for either the numbers or the views expressed in this document.

I wish to acknowledge the fine work done by the talented Ways and Means Committee staff. Their forecasts are integral to the budget process. The Speaker and I look forward to working with each of you to achieve a budget fair for all New Yorkers.

Sincerely

 
Herman D. Farrell, Jr.

Chairman