I am pleased to provide you with the Ways and Means Committee New York State Revenue Report for State Fiscal Years 1998-99 and 1999-2000. This report is part of our commitment to presenting clear and accurate information to the public. It provides an overview of the national and State economies, as well as an analysis of the Committee Staff revenue forecast for State Fiscal Years 1998-99 and 1999-2000.

The Committee Staff projects that General Fund and Lottery receipts will total $38,292 million in State Fiscal Year 1998-99, an increase of $2,205 million, or 6.1 percent, over State Fiscal Year 1997-98. The Committee Staff estimate is $67 million higher than the Executive’s estimate for State Fiscal Year 1998-99. This difference is attributable to a more optimistic outlook for the remainder of the current fiscal year. General Fund tax revenues are expected to increase by 7.4 percent in State Fiscal Year 1998-99.

The Committee Staff projects that General Fund and Lottery receipts will total $40,863 million in State Fiscal Year 1999-2000, an increase of $2,571 million, or 6.7 percent, over State Fiscal Year 1998-99. The Committee Staff estimate is $606 million higher than the Executive’s estimate for State Fiscal Year 1999-2000. General Fund tax revenues, however, are only estimated to increase by 5.2 percent over State Fiscal Year 1998-99. The growth in tax revenues, however, has been affected by tax reductions enacted by the State over the past few years. State Fiscal Year 1999-2000 receipts are reduced by over $2.0 billion in tax reductions.

The Committee staff projections are reviewed by an independent panel of professional economists drawn from major financial and manufacturing corporations, prestigious universities, and private forecasters from across the State. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, and I would like to express our appreciation to all of the members of our Board of Economic Advisors. Their dedication and expert judgement have been invaluable in helping the Ways and Means Committee staff refine and improve this forecast. They have served to make the work of the staff the best in the State. Of course, they are not responsible for either the numbers or the views expressed in this document.

I wish to acknowledge the fine work done by the talented Ways and Means Committee staff. Their forecasts are integral to the budget process. The Speaker and I look forward to working with each of you to achieve a budget fair for all New Yorkers.

Sincerely,

Herman D. Farrell, Jr.